The 2025 Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult Swiss Watch Report: A Tale of Polarization and Ultra-Premiumization
The luxury watch market is a fascinating arena, and the latest report from Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult offers a comprehensive look at its current state and future trajectory. With a focus on Swiss watch brands, the report highlights a market that is both polarizing and increasingly dominated by ultra-premium offerings.
The Polarizing Market
The report reveals a stark contrast between the top brands and the rest. Just four brands—Rolex, Cartier, Audemars Piguet, and Patek Philippe—account for over 50% of the Swiss watch market, a significant increase from the previous year. This concentration of market share is a trend that has been developing over the past few years, with the 'Big 4' brands seemingly immune to market fluctuations. Despite a challenging geopolitical and economic landscape, these brands have continued to perform strongly, with Rolex, in particular, showing resilience.
Rolex's Resilience
Rolex, the undisputed leader in the watch industry, has been proactively managing scarcity to maintain its brand desirability. This strategy has led to a slight decline in volumes, with an estimated -2% drop to 1.1 million watches sold, marking the first time in over two decades that Rolex's sales have declined for two consecutive years. This controlled approach is a testament to the brand's strength and ability to navigate market challenges.
Challenges for Some, Growth for Others
While the top brands thrive, others face significant challenges. The report identifies 10 brands within the Top 50 that experienced a turnover contraction of 15% or more in 2025, including Longines, Swatch, Hamilton, and Blancpain, all part of the Swatch Group. Additionally, Omega, once the second-largest brand, has slipped to fifth place due to declining sales and the rapid growth of its competitors. This shift underscores the intense competition within the industry.
The Billionaire's Club
The so-called 'billionaire's club,' comprising brands with revenues over CHF 1 billion, has also seen changes. Longines has exited this group, and Vacheron Constantin left in 2024, indicating a consolidation within the ultra-luxury segment.
Ultra-Premiumization
The report highlights the dominance of ultra-premium watches, which accounted for 37% of export value and contributed 89% of total growth in 2025, despite making up only 1.4% of volumes. This segment continues to thrive, while the core Swiss watch industry faces challenges, particularly in the mid-range and entry-level markets.
Independent Watchmakers
High-end independent watchmakers are also performing well. Brands like F.P. Journe, H. Moser & Cie., and MB&F have increased their revenues, and Christopher Ward has made its mark as one of the few mid-range independent watchmakers to boost its value.
In summary, the 2025 report from Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult provides a detailed insight into a market that is increasingly polarized and focused on ultra-premiumization. The 'Big 4' brands are the clear winners, while others must navigate the challenges of a highly competitive landscape.
